Pax Silica Initiative

The Pax Silica initiative is an emerging concept in global geopolitics that describes a US-led, rules-based order in the semiconductor ecosystem, analogous to Pax Americana in security and trade. While not a single treaty or organisation, Pax Silica reflects coordinated efforts among like-minded economies to secure chip supply chains, retain technological leadership, and reduce strategic dependence on adversarial states.
For India, the idea is increasingly relevant amid its push for semiconductor manufacturing, trusted technology partnerships, and strategic autonomy. The Pax Silica initiative has emerged as a powerful symbol of a technology-driven world order, where control over semiconductors, critical minerals, energy systems, and artificial intelligence shapes global power. Unveiled under the leadership of US President Donald Trump, the US-led Pax Silica framework seeks to secure trusted supply chains and counter China’s growing dominance in strategic technologies and resources.

What made the initiative immediately striking, however, were two unusual features:

1. Trump’s well-known scepticism towards multilateralism.
2. India’s conspicuous absence from a grouping clearly designed to reshape global technology and resource geopolitics.

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What Is Pax Silica?

Pax Silica is not a formal treaty or institution but a conceptual geopolitical framework—akin to Pax Americana—where silicon chips and critical inputs replace military alliances as the foundation of global order.

Core Idea:

• Semiconductors and minerals are the strategic assets of the 21st century
• Nations that control:
  • Chip design and fabrication
  • AI capabilities
  • Energy and mineral supply chains
    can shape global economic and security outcomes.

Under Pax Silica, security, resilience, and trust take precedence over cost efficiency and hyper-globalisation.

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A Multilateral Club — but on Trump’s Terms

Trump has never concealed his discomfort with traditional multilateral institutions. Bodies such as the United Nations, NATO, G7, and G20 faced open hostility or strategic indifference during his presidency.

That makes Pax Silica unusual.

• Multilateral in form
• Transactional in substance

Membership is based not on shared democratic values but on what each country tangibly brings to the table.

Core Members of Pax Silica:

• United States
• Japan
• South Korea
• Singapore
• United Kingdom
• Netherlands
• Israel
• United Arab Emirates
• Australia

These countries contribute either cutting-edge technological capabilities (semiconductors, AI, advanced manufacturing) or assured access to energy and critical minerals.

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Why India’s Exclusion Is Not an Anomaly

At first glance, India’s absence appears puzzling. If Pax Silica is implicitly aimed at countering China, why exclude the world’s largest democracy and a strategic US partner?

From Trump’s worldview, the logic is blunt.

• Each Pax Silica member offers:
  • Proven technological leadership or
  • Reliable access to minerals and energy

India, despite its size and geopolitical importance, does not yet dominate either domain.

Even the “guests” reportedly associated with Pax Silica underline this logic:

• Canada → mineral-rich
• Taiwan → global semiconductor hub

India, by contrast, remains a future promise rather than a current provider.

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The Long Shadow of Underinvestment in Technology

India’s relatively weak position in high technology is the result of decades of underinvestment.

• India spends only 0.6–0.7% of GDP on R&D, a figure stagnant for nearly 20 years.
• In comparison:
  • US → ~3%
  • China → ~2.5%
  • South Korea & Israel → ~5%

The outcomes are visible:

• Limited global leadership in product innovation
• Absence from cutting-edge semiconductor and AI ecosystems

Space technology remains a rare exception, where sustained public investment delivered global credibility—highlighting what is possible with consistent policy focus.

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A Minerals Sector That Never Took Off

India’s challenges extend beyond technology into critical minerals, a key pillar of Pax Silica.

Structural Weaknesses:

• Only 25–30% of geological potential explored
• Import dependence:
  • ~90% for oil & gas
  • ~100% for gold and lithium
  • ~95% for copper ore
  • Significant imports even for coal and bauxite

Mining contributes just ~2% to India’s GDP, compared to 8–10% in countries like Australia with similar geological endowments.

Policy focus has historically prioritised allocation and revenue, not discovery and exploration—leaving strategic resources locked underground.

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Why Policy Design Matters More Than Intent

Exploration is risky, capital-intensive, and long-term. The government cannot shoulder this burden alone.

• Private capital will flow only if:
  • Discoveries can be freely monetised
  • Policy intervention is predictable and limited

Without deep reforms, India risks remaining a consumer, not a supplier, in global mineral supply chains—an acute vulnerability in an era where lithium, rare earths, and copper define strategic power.

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The ‘Third Way’: India’s Market as Leverage

India’s strongest bargaining chip is not technology or minerals—but its vast consumer market.

In theory, decisive market opening could attract strategic interest even from a hard-nosed negotiator like Trump. Yet:

• Domestic political economy favours caution and protectionism
• Trade negotiations with the US have been prolonged and tentative

Reluctance to deploy market access as a strategic tool limits India’s leverage in transactional geopolitics.

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Potential Versus Performance in Today’s Geopolitics

For years, India has relied on its future potential—as an economic heavyweight and counterweight to China—to earn a place at the global high table.

Pax Silica signals a harsher reality:

• Capabilities matter more than intentions
• Delivery outweighs promise

India’s exclusion is less a diplomatic snub and more a mirror reflecting gaps created by decades of policy hesitation and underinvestment.

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Can India Shorten the Wait?

India’s moment is not foreclosed—but it demands urgency.

What Must Change:

• Substantially higher R&D investment
• Serious reform of mineral exploration policy
• Clearer strategy on market access as leverage

Only then can India move from potential participant to indispensable pillar in a Pax Silica–style world.

Conclusion

Pax Silica marks a decisive shift from ideology-driven alliances to capability-driven geopolitics. In this new order, control over chips, minerals, and innovation ecosystems defines influence. For India, the lesson is clear: potential must translate into performance. Only then can it claim a central role in the silicon age of global power.

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Topic Covered: Pax Silica initiative, semiconductor geopolitics, Trump multilateralism, India excluded Pax Silica, critical minerals strategy, US China tech rivalry